Case Studies :: Machine Learning
Detecting invalid data in financial time-seriesA financial client of ours stores over 2,000,000 time series data sets that represent the points on market data indices. Points in the data series had been imported on a daily basis over a number of years. The vast majority of the data was perfectly valid but occasionally there would be an invalid data point. For several years these data points had been corrected by users manually identifying the anomalies when they were discovered. This process was too time consuming and manually intensive, resulting in wasted man hours not only in detecting the points but also in investigating pricing variations that were being caused by the market data anomalies.
We were tasked with investigating the use of Machine Learning and Data Science to resolve the problem of identifying the anomalies. This wasn't a straight-forward anomaly detection issue as the natural variation of the indices was incredibly varied. What was a clear indication of an outlier in some indices, such as steep overnight variations in gradient, were normal behaviour in others.
Through a process of developing Random Forests, Isolation Forests and Clustering algorithms allowed us to develop an Ensemble which had an over 90% level of accuracy in detecting anomalous points. The result of processing the Ensemble against the clients data identified the anomalous data points and dramatically reduced the effort required to investigate overnight variations in the PnL of Trading Desks.
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